I think trying to predict the future prison population, to help understand how many prison officers and prisons might be needed in future, was quite difficult to get right (it’s impossible to get this “perfect”) as there are lots of things that affect how many people might be in prison. The methods for doing this are always evolving but a few years ago, my team helped get the model close to the way it works now: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/639801/prison-population-projections-2017-2022.pdf
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